Number of people dying in England and Wales is now BELOW average

Number of people dying in England and Wales drops BELOW average for the first time since coronavirus spiralled out of control in March, official statistics show

  • Office for National Statistics data shows fewer people died of any cause than expected in the week to June 19
  • Covid-19 is still killing people but fewer deaths from other diseases mean the total is below average
  • June 13 to 19 also had the lowest coronavirus death toll for 13 weeks, with 623 victims confirmed by the ONS 
  • Weekly deaths caused by the virus halved in just three weeks in June, from 1,279 on the 5th to 623 on 19th 

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The number of people dying each week in England and Wales is below average for the first time since the first person died of coronavirus in March.

A total of 9,339 people died of any cause in the week ending June 19, down from an average of 9,404 for the same week over the past five years.

This was the first time the 2020 weekly total was lower than average since March 13, when the first Covid-19 fatalities were officially recorded, and the lowest one-week total for the entire year so far.

Although people are still dying of coronavirus, fewer deaths from other causes has cancelled them out and the total is now lower than would be expected. 

Fatalities are now lower than average in both hospitals and care homes, but remain high in people’s private homes, with 827 more people than usual dying at home in the third week of June. Experts say many of these people are likely those with terminal illnesses who would normally die in hospital, such as cancer patients.

The week up to June 19 had the lowest coronavirus death count in 13 weeks and the rate of death halved in the space of just three weeks, with 623 more victims confirmed – down from 915 a week earlier and 1,279 by June 5. 

In total, the ONS says 49,610 people had died and had Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate by June 19. This includes people who were tested and also those not officially diagnosed by a doctor.

Matching data from Scotland shows 4,119 people had been killed there by coronavirus up to June 21, while Northern Ireland recorded 812 up to June 19. 

The total death toll in the UK, therefore, was at least 54,541 by mid-June, considerably higher than the 42,632 recorded by the Department of Health by June 21 (a 28 per cent increase).

In the week ending June 19 deaths were lower than average in the East, South East, North West and South West of England, about average in the Midlands, and above average in other regions and Wales, the ONS data shows (Pictured: Average is shown by dotted lines, real deaths by the blue line and coronavirus deaths the red line)

In the week ending June 19 deaths were lower than average in the East, South East, North West and South West of England, about average in the Midlands, and above average in other regions and Wales, the ONS data shows (Pictured: Average is shown by dotted lines, real deaths by the blue line and coronavirus deaths the red line)

Four regions of England saw fewer deaths than average in the week from June 13 to 19, which is the most recent data from the ONS.

East of England was furthest below average, with 6.8 per cent fewer fatalities than usual, followed by the South East (3.8 per cent), North West (3.7 per cent) and South West (3.5 per cent).

West Midlands had just one death more than it would expect to see in an average year (0.1 per cent).

Wales was continuing to see the most excess fatalities, with 7.7 per cent more people than usual dying in that week – a total of 44 more than the average 573. 

Today’s data shows the health impact of Covid-19 is continuing to shrink but there are still hundreds of people dying every week as lockdown begins to lift.

The latest figures do take into account any changes that might have happened as a result of people being allowed to spend unlimited amounts of time outside – which doesn’t appear to have affected the death rate.

It may be too soon, however, to show any changes triggered by rules allowing people to meet in groups of six, or of high street shops reopening.

Both those measures began in June and statisticians say it takes three weeks or more for trends to emerge in data because it can take that long for people to die after catching Covid-19.

But today’s promising data on deaths adds to growing evidence that the virus is, on the whole, retreating in Britain.

Separate data by the ONS last week estimated that around 3,800 people are catching the virus each day in England – some 26,900 per week. This is a significant fall from an estimated 61,000 per week – 8,700 per day – at the end of May.

The ONS said only around one in 1,700 people now have the illness and that ‘the number of people in England testing positive has decreased since the study began on 26 April’. It added, however, that the decline appears to have slowed recently as lockdown measures have loosened.

Today’s release showed that the North West – the region around Liverpool, Manchester and Cumbria – has experienced the most coronavirus deaths in England and Wales for four weeks running. 

Between May 23 and June 19 801 people have died of Covid-19 in that region, compared to 644 in the South East and  605 in Yorkshire and the Humber.

At the other end of the scale, 228 people died in that month in the South West, along with 254 in London and 267 in Wales.

The North West, where there were 127 coronavirus fatalities between June 13 and 19, was the only region to still record more than 100 deaths in a week. Closest behind it was the South East with 88. 

On average, Covid-19 victims now account for one in every 12 people (8.4 per cent) who die across England and Wales.  

The data comes as England prepares to go through the biggest easing of lockdown rules so far this weekend, with pubs and cafes allowed to reopen and people permitted to mix with other households and stay overnight outside of their own homes.

Cases diagnosed through the Government’s testing programme are continuing to fall – from a weekly average of 1,205 last Monday to 894 in the seven days to yesterday.

But the threat of another surge remains real – Leicester will not be allowed to lift its lockdown on Saturday and must close schools and non-essential high street shops again, the Government announced last night. 

The streets of the city centre were deserted this morning as Mr Hancock confirmed that police will be enforcing the curbs, vowing to push through laws to bolster their powers.

But he hinted that there will be no extra compensation for businesses, and faced a backlash after admitting there will be no ban on cars or trains into the city. The boundaries of the restrictions were only revealed this morning, adding to the sense of chaos. Villages outside of the city centre also face an extended lockdown.

There is also anger that action was not taken sooner, with complaints that ministers kept local authorities in the dark for more than a week after identifying a worrying spike in cases.

In a round of interviews intended to reassure an anxious public this morning, Mr Hancock said the government was mobilising its strategy for crushing localised outbreaks – dubbed ‘whack a mole’ by Boris Johnson.

‘It’s so important that we get a grip on this spike that has happened in Leicester. We will be closing the shops by law and will be changing the law in the next day or two to do that,’ he told BBC Breakfast. 

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